KSplitAnalytics
Model Diagnostics — Live Season Log
Games Logged 1897
Updates in real time
Total Games Logged
1897
season to date
MAE (Ks)
1.736
median absolute error
Avg Signed Error
-0.030
direction of bias
Within ±1K Rate
50.40%
within ±2K: 75.33%
01 — Ceiling Profile
How Do Ceiling Profile Labels Perform?
Tracks how often each ceiling profile delivers upside signal. High | Tail-Driven games show the highest 2+ over rates as the log grows — this table confirms or challenges that signal in real time.
Low | Centered
n = 891 games
2+ Ks Over Line
15.60%
Actual Ks Over the Line
45.23%
2+ Ks Under Line
36.14%
Mid | Tail-Supported
n = 762 games
2+ Ks Over Line
20.87%
Actual Ks Over the Line
52.36%
2+ Ks Under Line
31.76%
High | Tail-Driven
n = 244 games
2+ Ks Over Line
17.62%
Actual Ks Over the Line
54.10%
2+ Ks Under Line
35.25%
02 — Right Tail Calibration
Mean-Based Right Tail Tables
When the model assigns a given upside probability, how often does it actually happen? O/E near 1.00 means the model is well-calibrated at that bucket. Values above 1.0 mean reality exceeds the model's prediction — below 1.0 means the model is over-calling it.
| +1 tail calibration (bucketed by P(+1)) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P(+1) bucket | Hits | n | Hit % | |
| <30% | 162 | 578 | 28.03% | |
| 30–39.99% | 237 | 745 | 31.81% | |
| 40–49.99% | 143 | 450 | 31.78% | |
| 50–59.99% | 35 | 102 | 34.31% | |
| 60–69.99% | 4 | 19 | 21.05% | |
| 70%+ | 0 | 2 | 0.00% | |
| Total Games | 1896 |
03 — Tail Environment
Strikeout Environment Classification
Environment type tracks the structural conditions around each game's K distribution.
| Environment Type | Sample Size | Actual Ks: 2+ Ks Over the Line | Actual Ks Exactly 1 Over Line | Actual Ks Exactly 1 Under Line | Actual Ks: 2+ Ks Under the Line | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragile Tail Environment | 808 | 14.85% | 12.62% | 18.56% | 36.26% | |||
| Low Tail Environment | 79 | 24.05% | 7.59% | 20.25% | 31.65% | |||
| Balanced Tail Environment | 509 | 21.02% | 13.95% | 17.68% | 28.88% | |||
| Balanced Tail (Accessible) | 257 | 19.46% | 11.67% | 17.51% | 32.68% | |||
| Tail-Friendly Environment | 142 | 17.61% | 14.08% | 14.79% | 34.51% | |||
| Stable Tail Environment | 102 | 19.61% | 16.67% | 16.67% | 25.49% | |||
| All Environments | 1897 |
04 — Median by Tier
Exact Hits by Pitcher Tier
Exact hits become less frequent as distributions widen in higher strikeout tiers.
Elite
n = 272 games
MAE
1.888
Median Exact Hit
18.15%
Within ±1
47.01%
Within ±2
71.27%
Mid
n = 523 games
MAE
1.791
Median Exact Hit
18.50%
Within ±1
49.22%
Within ±2
72.66%
Low
n = 1127 games
MAE
1.676
Median Exact Hit
17.56%
Within ±1
51.70%
Within ±2
77.51%
05 — Median Diagnostics & Edge Band
Error Distribution & ROI by Edge Bucket
| Error Buckets | Median | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2K (From Actual) | 13.6% | |||||||
| -1K | 17.5% | |||||||
| Exact Hit | 18.0% | |||||||
| +1K | 14.9% | |||||||
| +2K | 11.3% | |||||||
| Big Miss % ABS Err>2.5) | 24.7% |
| Edge Band (Best Edge) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 0% | 0 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 0–4.99% | 777 | 0.01 | ||||||
| 5–9.99% | 575 | 0.02 | ||||||
| 10–14.99% | 336 | 0.03 | ||||||
| 15–19.99% | 135 | -0.10 | ||||||
| 20–24.99% | 53 | -0.08 | ||||||
| 25–29.99% | 17 | -0.38 | ||||||
| 30%+ | 4 | -0.09 |
06 — Over/Under Edge Band Performance
ROI & Unit P/L by Edge Band Bucket
Overs
| Edge Band (Overs) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | Unit P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 427 | 0.00 | -0.44 |
| 5–9.99% | 346 | 0.00 | -0.88 |
| 10–14.99% | 215 | 0.05 | 10.84 |
| 15–19.99% | 90 | -0.06 | -5.23 |
| 20–24.99% | 32 | -0.20 | -6.51 |
| 25–29.99% | 12 | -0.20 | -2.39 |
| 30%+ | 3 | -0.46 | -1.38 |
| Total | 1125 | -0.01 | -5.99 |
Unders
| Edge Band (Unders) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | Unit P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 350 | 0.03 | 10.34 |
| 5–9.99% | 229 | 0.06 | 13.98 |
| 10–14.99% | 121 | 0.01 | 0.89 |
| 15–19.99% | 45 | -0.18 | -7.95 |
| 20–24.99% | 21 | 0.11 | 2.27 |
| 25–29.99% | 5 | -0.83 | -4.13 |
| 30%+ | 1 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Total | 772 | 0.02 | 16.42 |
07 — Rolling Window Summary
Combined P/L Across Edge Bands
L200 All
| Edge Band | Unit P/L |
|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 0.39 |
| 5–9.99% | 11.69 |
| 10–14.99% | 8.80 |
| 15–19.99% | -10.67 |
| 20–24.99% | 0.99 |
| 25–29.99% | -2.94 |
| 30%+ | 0 |
| L200 Total | 8.26 |
L50 All
| Edge Band | Unit P/L |
|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | -0.53 |
| 5–9.99% | 8.68 |
| 10–14.99% | 7.77 |
| 15–19.99% | -4.79 |
| 20–24.99% | 1.00 |
| 25–29.99% | -1.52 |
| 30%+ | 0 |
| L50 Total | 10.61 |