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Yesterday's Board
Strikeout projections · Friday, April 24, 2026
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Table density
| Time | Lineup Status | Pitcher | Opponent | Pitcher Hand | Pitcher Tier | Leash | Baseline Ks (Median) | Mean Ks | Mode Ks | Strikeout Line | Main Line Over | Main Line Under | Best Edge Side | Distribution Shape Score | Model P(O) | Model P(U) | Main Line Best Edge (deVig) | Odds +1 | Odds +2 | P(K ≥ +1) | P(K ≥ +2) | P(K ≥ +3) | P(K ≥ +4) | Odds +1 Edge (VIG) | Odds +2 Edge (VIG) | Split Influence Level | Right Tail Mass % | Expected CRPS (x100) | Ceiling Conversion Confidence | Ceiling Profile | Tail Environment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed | Framber Valdez | CIN | L | Low | M-L | 5 | 5.16 | 5 | 5.5 | -111 | -106 | UNDER | 33 | 41.24% | 58.76% | 9.31% | 175 | 332 | 26.38%, +279 | 7.69%, +1201 | 8.19% | 4.02% | -9.98% | -15.46% | Damp | 15.37% | 0.60717 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Brayan Bello | BAL | R | Low | M | 4 | 4.53 | 4 | 4.5 | 120 | -146 | OVER | 37 | 47.32% | 52.68% | 3.95% | 252 | 533 | 30.38%, +229 | 8.78%, +1040 | 9.17% | 4.37% | 1.97% | -7.02% | Slight Damp | 17.55% | 1.11717 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Brandon Young | BOS | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.39 | 4 | 3.5 | -136 | 122 | OVER | 67 | 63.64% | 36.36% | 7.51% | 172 | 370 | 44.64%, +124 | 24.62%, +306 | 15.75% | 8.01% | 7.88% | 3.35% | Slight Boost | 15.75% | 1.28219 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) | |
| Confirmed | Gavin Williams | TOR | R | Elite | M-L | 6 | 6.07 | 6 | 5.5 | 103 | -131 | OVER | 64 | 56.37% | 43.63% | 9.88% | 202 | 399 | 40.55%, +147 | 23.61%, +324 | 16.36% | 9.23% | 7.44% | 3.57% | Neutral | 16.36% | 0.25134 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) | |
| Confirmed | Max Scherzer | CLE | R | Low | S | 4 | 4.07 | 4 | 3.5 | -154 | 123 | OVER | 55 | 57.76% | 42.24% | 0.28% | 152 | 320 | 38.43%, +160 | 18.17%, +450 | 12.00% | 5.71% | -1.25% | -5.64% | Max Damp | 12.00% | 1.75116 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Michael Lorenzen | NYM | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.32 | 4 | 3.5 | -168 | 132 | OVER | 65 | 62.43% | 37.57% | 3.18% | 133 | 284 | 43.32%, +131 | 23.61%, +324 | 14.90% | 7.48% | 0.40% | -2.43% | Neutral | 14.90% | 1.37052 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) | |
| Confirmed | Freddy Peralta | COL | R | Mid | M-L | 6 | 6.19 | 6 | 6.5 | -137 | 107 | UNDER | 36 | 42.37% | 57.63% | 12.11% | 141 | 269 | 28.43%, +252 | 8.80%, +1036 | 10.08% | 5.37% | -13.06% | -18.30% | Neutral | 17.60% | 0.22484 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Taj Bradley | TB | R | Mid | M-L | 5 | 5.47 | 5 | 4.5 | -160 | 125 | OVER | 76 | 63.42% | 36.58% | 5.36% | 130 | 258 | 46.44%, +115 | 31.00%, +223 | 18.90% | 10.58% | 2.96% | 3.07% | Slight Damp | 18.90% | 0.45255 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Tail-Friendly Environment | |
| Confirmed | Drew Rasmussen | MIN | R | Low | S-M | 5 | 5.04 | 5 | 5.5 | 118 | -151 | UNDER | 41 | 39.13% | 60.87% | 4.13% | 270 | 550 | 24.57%, +307 | 13.34%, +650 | 7.33% | 3.52% | -2.46% | -2.05% | Slight Boost | 14.04% | 0.68349 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Andrew Painter | ATL | R | Low | S | 4 | 4.42 | 4 | 3.5 | -158 | 131 | OVER | 68 | 64.07% | 35.93% | 5.48% | 146 | 320 | 45.11%, +122 | 24.98%, +300 | 16.05% | 8.21% | 4.46% | 1.17% | Slight Boost | 16.05% | 1.25165 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) | |
| Confirmed | Grant Holmes | PHI | R | Low | S | 4 | 4.35 | 4 | 4.5 | -140 | 116 | UNDER | 34 | 43.78% | 56.22% | 11.97% | 152 | 311 | 27.23%, +267 | 7.60%, +1217 | 7.66% | 3.52% | -12.45% | -16.74% | Damp | 15.19% | 1.33915 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Miles Mikolas | CHW | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.07 | 4 | 3.5 | -151 | 120 | OVER | 55 | 57.78% | 42.22% | 0.82% | 156 | 337 | 38.45%, +160 | 18.18%, +450 | 12.01% | 5.72% | -0.61% | -4.71% | Neutral | 12.01% | 1.74968 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Yusei Kikuchi | KC | L | Mid | M | 5 | 5.05 | 5 | 4.5 | -152 | 119 | UNDER | 58 | 56.57% | 43.43% | 0.34% | 152 | 320 | 39.25%, +155 | 19.74%, +407 | 14.11% | 7.38% | -0.43% | -4.07% | Damp | 14.11% | 0.67904 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Noah Cameron | LAA | L | Low | S-M | 5 | 4.99 | 4 | 4.5 | -130 | 105 | OVER | 56 | 55.59% | 44.41% | 1.91% | 168 | 350 | 38.26%, +161 | 19.07%, +424 | 13.51% | 7.00% | 0.95% | -3.15% | Neutral | 23.84% | 0.71754 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Luis Severino | TEX | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.61 | 4 | 4.5 | -114 | -102 | UNDER | 39 | 48.69% | 51.31% | 2.65% | 180 | 372 | 31.63%, +216 | 9.26%, +980 | 9.81% | 4.74% | -4.08% | -11.93% | Boost | 18.51% | 1.04067 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Nathan Eovaldi | ATH | R | Mid | L | 6 | 6.15 | 6 | 5.5 | 106 | -134 | OVER | 66 | 57.57% | 42.43% | 11.69% | 213 | 428 | 41.78%, +139 | 24.56%, +307 | 17.19% | 9.80% | 9.83% | 5.62% | Slight Damp | 17.19% | 0.23311 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) | |
| Confirmed | Will Warren | HOU | R | Mid | S-M | 5 | 5.51 | 5 | 5.5 | 129 | -165 | OVER | 40 | 47.21% | 52.79% | 5.98% | 262 | 533 | 31.70%, +215 | 9.73%, +928 | 10.96% | 5.69% | 4.08% | -6.07% | Boost | 19.46% | 0.43311 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Lance McCullers Jr | NYY | R | Low | S-M | 5 | 4.97 | 4 | 5.5 | 104 | -133 | UNDER | 39 | 37.82% | 62.18% | 8.38% | 211 | 436 | 23.47%, +326 | 12.58%, +695 | 6.83% | 3.24% | -8.68% | -6.08% | Neutral | 23.47% | 0.73547 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | George Kirby | STL | R | Low | M-L | 6 | 5.69 | 5 | 5.5 | 122 | -154 | OVER | 52 | 50.12% | 49.88% | 7.50% | 248 | 490 | 34.43%, +190 | 17.33%, +477 | 12.52% | 6.68% | 5.69% | 0.38% | Slight Boost | 21.66% | 0.36576 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Andre Pallante | SEA | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.01 | 3 | 3.5 | -123 | 102 | OVER | 54 | 56.59% | 43.41% | 3.89% | 186 | 424 | 37.25%, +168 | 17.40%, +475 | 11.35% | 5.33% | 2.28% | -1.68% | Neutral | 11.35% | 1.85732 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Jameson Taillon | LAD | R | Low | S-M | 5 | 4.74 | 4 | 4.5 | 114 | -138 | OVER | 50 | 51.18% | 48.82% | 6.55% | 248 | 531 | 33.96%, +194 | 16.27%, +515 | 11.04% | 5.47% | 5.22% | 0.42% | Slight Boost | 20.34% | 0.91244 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Emmet Sheehan | CHC | R | Mid | S-M | 5 | 5.29 | 5 | 4.5 | -155 | 121 | OVER | 67 | 60.66% | 39.34% | 3.34% | 136 | 284 | 43.48%, +130 | 24.93%, +301 | 16.84% | 9.17% | 1.11% | -1.11% | Neutral | 16.84% | 0.53552 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) | |
| Confirmed | Sandy Alcantara | SF | R | Low | L | 5 | 5.10 | 5 | 4.5 | 114 | -141 | OVER | 62 | 57.47% | 42.53% | 13.06% | 237 | 497 | 40.15%, +149 | 22.39%, +347 | 14.67% | 7.74% | 10.48% | 5.64% | Slight Boost | 14.67% | 0.64537 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Adrian Houser | MIA | R | Low | M | 4 | 4.15 | 4 | 3.5 | -104 | -113 | OVER | 58 | 59.26% | 40.74% | 10.25% | 210 | 470 | 39.96%, +150 | 19.18%, +421 | 12.87% | 6.23% | 7.70% | 1.63% | Neutral | 12.87% | 1.62243 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Paul Skenes | MIL | R | Elite | M-L | 5 | 5.61 | 5 | 6.5 | 119 | -130 | UNDER | 38 | 33.54% | 66.46% | 11.14% | 224 | 446 | 21.49%, +365 | 12.14%, +724 | 7.09% | 3.67% | -9.37% | -6.17% | Neutral | 21.49% | 0.50002 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Brandon Woodruff | PIT | R | Elite | M-L | 6 | 6.41 | 6 | 6.5 | 125 | -158 | OVER | 49 | 45.80% | 54.20% | 3.74% | 243 | 472 | 31.52%, +217 | 16.05%, +523 | 11.83% | 6.49% | 2.37% | -1.43% | Slight Damp | 20.06% | 0.18199 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Andrew Abbott | DET | L | Low | S-M | 4 | 3.99 | 3 | 4.5 | 111 | -132 | UNDER | 35 | 37.00% | 63.00% | 8.45% | 239 | 497 | 21.55%, +364 | 10.65%, +839 | 5.25% | 2.24% | -7.95% | -6.10% | Damp | 21.55% | 1.88060 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
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