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Strikeout projections · Thursday, July 23, 2026
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Table density
Lineup Status | Pitcher | Opponent | Pitcher Hand | Pitcher Tier | Leash | Baseline Ks (Median) | Mean Ks | Mode Ks | Strikeout Line | Main Line Over | Main Line Under | Best Edge Side | Distribution Shape Score | Model P(O) | Model P(U) | Main Line Best Edge (deVig) | Odds +1 | Odds +2 | P(K ≥ +1) | P(K ≥ +2) | P(K ≥ +3) | P(K ≥ +4) | Odds +1 Edge (VIG) | Odds +2 Edge (VIG) | Split Influence Level | Right Tail Mass % | Expected CRPS (x100) | Ceiling Conversion Confidence | Ceiling Profile | Tail Environment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed | Chris Sale | SD | L | Elite | L | 7 | 7.65 | 7 | 6.5 | -152 | 119 | OVER | 82 | 61.59% | 38.41% | 4.68% | 132 | 260 | 47.78%, +109 | 34.72%, +188 | 23.52% | 15.55% | 4.68% | 6.94% | Neutral | 23.52% | 0.08539 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Stable Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Griffin Canning | ATL | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 3.83 | 3 | 4.5 | 128 | -157 | UNDER | 32 | 33.77% | 66.23% | 8.02% | 285 | 630 | 19.01%, +426 | 9.06%, +1003 | 4.31% | 1.76% | -6.96% | -4.64% | Damp | 19.01% | 2.20728 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Taj Bradley | CLE | R | Mid | M | 5 | 5.54 | 5 | 5.5 | -156 | 125 | UNDER | 40 | 47.68% | 52.32% | 10.15% | 130 | 255 | 32.13%, +211 | 9.90%, +910 | 11.20% | 5.84% | -11.35% | -18.27% | Boost | 19.80% | 0.42156 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Gavin Williams | MIN | R | Elite | M-L | 7 | 7.41 | 7 | 7.5 | 124 | -159 | OVER | 52 | 45.83% | 54.17% | 3.72% | 320 | 630 | 33.24%, +201 | 18.18%, +450 | 14.68% | 8.97% | 9.43% | 4.49% | Slight Damp | 22.73% | 0.10261 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Ian Seymour | TOR | L | Elite | S-M | 5 | 4.91 | 4 | 4.5 | -123 | 100 | OVER | 54 | 54.22% | 45.78% | 1.77% | 174 | 370 | 36.91%, +171 | 18.18%, +450 | 12.71% | 6.49% | 0.41% | -3.10% | Slight Damp | 22.72% | 0.77387 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Shane Bieber | TB | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.25 | 4 | 4.5 | 124 | -150 | UNDER | 41 | 41.86% | 58.14% | 0.80% | 255 | 560 | 25.57%, +291 | 13.30%, +652 | 6.92% | 3.11% | -2.60% | -1.85% | Slight Damp | 14.00% | 1.47547 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Brandon Pfaadt | STL | R | Low | M | 3 | 3.21 | 3 | 3.5 | 104 | -122 | UNDER | 35 | 40.04% | 59.96% | 7.11% | 249 | 570 | 22.31%, +348 | 10.33%, +868 | 4.69% | 1.81% | -6.34% | -4.60% | Neutral | 10.87% | 3.95199 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Michael McGreevy | ARI | R | Low | M-L | 4 | 3.69 | 3 | 3.5 | 115 | -138 | OVER | 38 | 50.29% | 49.71% | 5.78% | 276 | 650 | 31.18%, +221 | 8.53%, +1073 | 8.30% | 3.63% | 4.58% | -4.81% | Neutral | 17.05% | 2.51156 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Troy Melton | KC | R | Mid | M-L | 5 | 5.45 | 5 | 5.5 | -148 | 122 | UNDER | 38 | 46.07% | 53.93% | 10.91% | 140 | 285 | 30.66%, +226 | 9.32%, +973 | 10.39% | 5.34% | -11.01% | -16.65% | Slight Damp | 18.64% | 0.46210 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
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