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Strikeout projections · Monday, September 7, 2026
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Table density
Lineup Status | Pitcher | Opponent | Pitcher Hand | Pitcher Tier | Leash | Baseline Ks (Median) | Mean Ks | Mode Ks | Strikeout Line | Main Line Over | Main Line Under | Best Edge Side | Distribution Shape Score | Model P(O) | Model P(U) | Main Line Best Edge (deVig) | Odds +1 | Odds +2 | P(K ≥ +1) | P(K ≥ +2) | P(K ≥ +3) | P(K ≥ +4) | Odds +1 Edge (VIG) | Odds +2 Edge (VIG) | Split Influence Level | Right Tail Mass % | Expected CRPS (x100) | Ceiling Conversion Confidence | Ceiling Profile | Tail Environment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed | Kyle Harrison | CIN | L | Elite | S-M | 7 | 7.10 | 6 | 6.5 | -115 | -105 | OVER | 67 | 55.33% | 44.67% | 4.24% | 172 | 341 | 41.52%, +141 | 25.76%, +288 | 19.41%, +415 | 12.14%, +724 | 4.76% | 3.08% | Neutral | 19.41% | 0.13497 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
| Confirmed | Brady Singer | MIL | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 3.71 | 3 | 4.5 | -125 | 113 | UNDER | 29 | 31.51% | 68.49% | 22.68% | 172 | 350 | 17.30%, +478 | 8.03%, +1146 | 3.71%, +2595 | 1.48%, +6669 | -19.46% | -14.19% | Neutral | 17.30% | 2.46991 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Tyler Mahle | PHI | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.48 | 4 | 4.5 | 102 | -122 | UNDER | 36 | 46.36% | 53.64% | 1.03% | 220 | 469 | 29.51%, +239 | 8.45%, +1084 | 8.75%, +1043 | 4.13%, +2324 | -1.74% | -9.13% | Slight Boost | 16.89% | 1.17370 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Aaron Nola | ATL | R | Mid | M | 6 | 5.78 | 5 | 5.5 | -125 | 108 | UNDER | 54 | 51.59% | 48.41% | 2.02% | 167 | 348 | 35.83%, +179 | 18.25%, +448 | 13.36%, +649 | 7.22%, +1285 | -1.62% | -4.07% | Slight Boost | 22.81% | 0.33550 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Walbert Urena | PIT | R | Low | S-M | 5 | 5.28 | 5 | 5.5 | 124 | -158 | OVER | 35 | 43.22% | 56.78% | 1.06% | 280 | 560 | 28.11%, +256 | 8.34%, +1100 | 9.05%, +1005 | 4.53%, +2108 | 1.79% | -6.82% | Slight Damp | 16.67% | 0.54322 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Paul Skenes | LAA | R | Elite | M | 7 | 7.51 | 7 | 6.5 | -113 | -111 | OVER | 81 | 60.73% | 39.27% | 10.52% | 183 | 370 | 47.13%, +112 | 34.47%, +190 | 23.78%, +320 | 15.51%, +545 | 11.79% | 13.19% | Neutral | 23.78% | 0.09439 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Tail-Friendly Environment |
| Confirmed | Payton Tolle | BAL | L | Mid | M-L | 7 | 7.37 | 7 | 7.5 | 107 | -136 | UNDER | 50 | 45.49% | 54.51% | 0.11% | 215 | 420 | 32.15%, +211 | 16.95%, +490 | 13.05%, +666 | 7.53%, +1227 | 0.40% | -2.28% | Slight Boost | 21.19% | 0.07208 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Kyle Bradish | BOS | R | Low | M | 4 | 4.58 | 4 | 4.5 | -154 | 123 | UNDER | 38 | 48.15% | 51.85% | 9.33% | 139 | 290 | 31.14%, +221 | 9.07%, +1003 | 9.56%, +947 | 4.59%, +2078 | -10.70% | -16.58% | Neutral | 18.13% | 1.07015 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Christian Scott | SF | R | Mid | S-M | 5 | 5.66 | 5 | 5.5 | -150 | 137 | UNDER | 51 | 49.72% | 50.28% | 8.99% | 130 | 265 | 34.05%, +194 | 17.08%, +485 | 12.30%, +713 | 6.54%, +1430 | -9.43% | -10.32% | Neutral | 21.35% | 0.37439 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Clay Holmes | MIA | R | Low | M-L | 5 | 4.96 | 4 | 4.5 | -119 | -104 | OVER | 56 | 55.06% | 44.94% | 3.47% | 180 | 390 | 37.73%, +165 | 18.72%, +434 | 13.19%, +658 | 6.80%, +1371 | 2.02% | -1.69% | Damp | 23.40% | 0.73885 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Tyler Phillips | CHC | R | Low | S | 3 | 2.80 | 2 | 3.5 | -156 | 126 | UNDER | 25 | 30.94% | 69.06% | 26.99% | 143 | 327 | 15.44%, +548 | 6.36%, +1473 | 2.55%, +3819 | 0.87%, +11409 | -25.71% | -17.06% | Neutral | 15.44% | 5.79166 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Jackson Jobe | CLE | R | Low | S-M | 3 | 3.10 | 3 | 3.5 | -132 | 106 | UNDER | 32 | 37.42% | 62.58% | 16.54% | 167 | 370 | 20.24%, +394 | 9.07%, +1002 | 3.99%, +2409 | 1.49%, +6626 | -17.21% | -12.20% | Neutral | 9.55% | 4.41523 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Gavin Williams | DET | R | Elite | M-L | 8 | 7.85 | 7 | 8.5 | 109 | -139 | UNDER | 37 | 38.86% | 61.14% | 6.28% | 235 | 450 | 27.64%, +262 | 9.30%, +975 | 11.87%, +742 | 7.19%, +1290 | -2.21% | -8.88% | Neutral | 27.64% | 0.07019 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Spencer Arrighetti | KC | R | Low | S | 4 | 4.09 | 4 | 3.5 | -102 | -122 | OVER | 56 | 58.20% | 41.80% | 10.31% | 226 | 510 | 38.87%, +157 | 18.46%, +442 | 12.25%, +717 | 5.86%, +1606 | 8.20% | 2.06% | Neutral | 12.25% | 1.71302 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Randy Dobnak | TOR | R | Low | S-M | 3 | 2.93 | 2 | 2.5 | -140 | 125 | UNDER | 40 | 56.05% | 43.95% | 0.71% | 176 | 400 | 33.83%, +196 | 8.76%, +1042 | 7.90%, +1167 | 3.14%, +3086 | -2.40% | -11.24% | Neutral | 17.52% | 5.13401 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Eduardo Rodriguez | HOU | L | Low | M-L | 3 | 3.31 | 3 | 4.5 | 118 | -136 | UNDER | 22 | 24.12% | 75.88% | 20.21% | 266 | 561 | 12.06%, +729 | 5.07%, +1871 | 2.12%, +4615 | 0.76%, +13031 | -15.26% | -10.06% | Neutral | 12.06% | 3.59526 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Peter Lambert | ARI | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.37 | 4 | 4.5 | -108 | -115 | UNDER | 34 | 44.28% | 55.72% | 4.98% | 203 | 446 | 27.66%, +262 | 7.76%, +1189 | 7.86%, +1172 | 3.63%, +2656 | -5.34% | -10.56% | Neutral | 15.51% | 1.30580 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Ian Seymour | TEX | L | Elite | M-L | 6 | 6.31 | 6 | 5.5 | -136 | 118 | OVER | 75 | 59.02% | 40.98% | 3.34% | 146 | 300 | 44.07%, +127 | 30.66%, +226 | 19.91%, +402 | 12.10%, +726 | 3.42% | 3.42% | Neutral | 19.91% | 0.26909 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Tail-Friendly Environment |
| Confirmed | MacKenzie Gore | TB | L | Low | M | 5 | 5.12 | 5 | 4.5 | -148 | 116 | OVER | 62 | 57.78% | 42.22% | 1.46% | 145 | 315 | 40.47%, +147 | 22.62%, +342 | 14.87%, +572 | 7.87%, +1170 | -0.35% | -1.47% | Neutral | 14.87% | 0.63399 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Kyle Leahy | COL | R | Low | 2.5 | 115 | -128 | 283 | 660 | Damp | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Confirmed | Tanner Gordon | STL | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 3.78 | 3 | 4.5 | 131 | -168 | UNDER | 31 | 32.78% | 67.22% | 8.07% | 294 | 650 | 18.25%, +448 | 8.60%, +1063 | 4.04%, +2377 | 1.63%, +6024 | -7.13% | -4.74% | Neutral | 18.25% | 2.31949 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Gage Jump | SEA | L | Low | S-M | 6 | 5.98 | 5 | 5.5 | -111 | 100 | OVER | 61 | 54.81% | 45.19% | 3.54% | 179 | 347 | 38.98%, +157 | 22.41%, +346 | 15.33%, +552 | 8.53%, +1073 | 3.14% | 0.04% | Neutral | 25.47% | 0.27662 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Bryan Woo | ATH | R | Mid | M-L | 6 | 6.24 | 6 | 6.5 | 108 | -131 | UNDER | 37 | 43.23% | 56.77% | 2.65% | 230 | 450 | 29.19%, +243 | 9.10%, +999 | 10.50%, +852 | 5.63%, +1675 | -1.11% | -9.08% | Neutral | 18.20% | 0.21327 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Gerrit Cole | SD | R | Mid | M-L | 5 | 5.52 | 5 | 5.5 | 112 | -129 | OVER | 40 | 47.28% | 52.72% | 1.70% | 220 | 465 | 31.77%, +215 | 9.76%, +925 | 11.00%, +809 | 5.72%, +1650 | 0.52% | -7.94% | Damp | 19.51% | 0.43132 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Michael King | NYY | R | Low | M-L | 6 | 6.14 | 6 | 5.5 | -120 | 105 | OVER | 65 | 57.35% | 42.65% | 4.57% | 164 | 350 | 41.56%, +141 | 24.38%, +310 | 17.04%, +487 | 9.70%, +931 | 3.68% | 2.16% | Neutral | 17.04% | 0.23633 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
| Confirmed | Bailey Ober | CHW | R | Low | S-M | 3 | 2.98 | 2 | 3.5 | -137 | 108 | UNDER | 29 | 34.91% | 65.09% | 19.69% | 172 | 400 | 18.32%, +446 | 7.95%, +1158 | 3.38%, +2860 | 1.22%, +8111 | -18.44% | -12.05% | Damp | 18.32% | 4.90824 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Andrew Alvarez | LAD | L | Low | S | 4 | 4.30 | 4 | 3.5 | -120 | -105 | OVER | 65 | 62.05% | 37.95% | 10.48% | 191 | 433 | 42.91%, +133 | 23.29%, +329 | 14.65%, +583 | 7.32%, +1266 | 8.55% | 4.53% | Neutral | 14.65% | 1.39937 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
| Confirmed | Justin Wrobleski | WSH | L | Mid | S | 4 | 4.22 | 4 | 4.5 | 114 | -141 | UNDER | 41 | 41.33% | 58.67% | 3.08% | 237 | 520 | 25.12%, +298 | 13.00%, +669 | 6.72%, +1388 | 3.00%, +3229 | -4.55% | -3.13% | Neutral | 13.68% | 1.51547 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
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