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Strikeout projections · Monday, June 8, 2026
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Table density
Lineup Status | Pitcher | Opponent | Pitcher Hand | Pitcher Tier | Leash | Baseline Ks (Median) | Mean Ks | Mode Ks | Strikeout Line | Main Line Over | Main Line Under | Best Edge Side | Distribution Shape Score | Model P(O) | Model P(U) | Main Line Best Edge (deVig) | Odds +1 | Odds +2 | P(K ≥ +1) | P(K ≥ +2) | P(K ≥ +3) | P(K ≥ +4) | Odds +1 Edge (VIG) | Odds +2 Edge (VIG) | Split Influence Level | Right Tail Mass % | Expected CRPS (x100) | Ceiling Conversion Confidence | Ceiling Profile | Tail Environment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed | Emerson Hancock | BAL | R | Low | M | 6 | 6.28 | 6 | 5.5 | 124 | -155 | OVER | 69 | 59.46% | 40.54% | 17.12% | 260 | 520 | 43.74%, +129 | 26.09%, +283 | 18.56% | 10.76% | 15.96% | 9.96% | Neutral | 18.56% | 0.20670 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
| Confirmed | Connelly Early | TB | R | Elite | M | 5 | 5.23 | 5 | 4.5 | -153 | 120 | OVER | 65 | 59.70% | 40.30% | 2.61% | 143 | 306 | 42.46%, +136 | 24.14%, +314 | 16.16% | 8.71% | 1.31% | -0.49% | Neutral | 16.16% | 0.56718 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
| Confirmed | Ian Seymour | BOS | L | Mid | Slight Damp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Confirmed | Will Warren | CLE | R | Mid | S-M | 4 | 4.08 | 4 | 4.5 | 117 | -140 | UNDER | 38 | 38.71% | 61.29% | 5.42% | 254 | 558 | 22.94%, +336 | 11.55%, +766 | 5.81% | 2.52% | -5.31% | -3.65% | Damp | 12.16% | 1.72680 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Gavin Williams | NYY | R | Elite | M-L | 7 | 7.32 | 7 | 6.5 | -138 | 113 | OVER | 77 | 58.25% | 41.75% | 2.99% | 134 | 266 | 44.51%, +125 | 32.01%, +212 | 21.69% | 13.87% | 1.77% | 4.69% | Neutral | 21.69% | 0.11160 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Tail-Friendly Environment |
| Confirmed | Cristopher Sanchez | TOR | L | Mid | L | 7 | 7.12 | 7 | 6.5 | 116 | -137 | OVER | 67 | 56.51% | 43.49% | 12.04% | 210 | 416 | 41.89%, +139 | 25.41%, +294 | 18.53% | 11.10% | 9.63% | 6.03% | Neutral | 18.53% | 0.09150 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
| Confirmed | Patrick Corbin | PHI | L | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.10 | 4 | 4.5 | 124 | -159 | UNDER | 38 | 39.05% | 60.95% | 3.06% | 280 | 620 | 23.21%, +331 | 11.72%, +753 | 5.92% | 2.58% | -3.11% | -2.17% | Slight Damp | 12.34% | 1.69841 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Spencer Arrighetti | LAA | R | Low | M | 5 | 5.33 | 5 | 5.5 | -110 | -116 | UNDER | 36 | 44.14% | 55.86% | 5.23% | 183 | 375 | 28.93%, +246 | 8.65%, +1057 | 9.47% | 4.78% | -6.41% | -12.41% | Neutral | 17.29% | 0.51566 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Grayson Rodriguez | HOU | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.64 | 4 | 5.5 | 114 | -123 | UNDER | 33 | 32.15% | 67.85% | 13.71% | 205 | 412 | 18.91%, +429 | 9.58%, +944 | 4.90% | 2.18% | -13.88% | -9.96% | Boost | 18.91% | 1.01029 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Andrew Abbott | SD | L | Mid | M-L | 4 | 4.66 | 4 | 4.5 | 102 | -125 | OVER | 40 | 49.72% | 50.28% | 2.60% | 225 | 490 | 32.59%, +207 | 9.63%, +939 | 10.31% | 5.03% | 1.82% | -7.32% | Damp | 19.25% | 0.98583 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Walker Buehler | CIN | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.17 | 4 | 4.5 | -115 | 104 | UNDER | 40 | 40.41% | 59.59% | 11.77% | 189 | 409 | 24.34%, +311 | 12.47%, +702 | 6.39% | 2.83% | -10.26% | -7.17% | Boost | 13.13% | 1.58684 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Miles Mikolas | SF | R | Low | 3.5 | 134 | -180 | 320 | 700 | Neutral | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Confirmed | Logan Webb | WSH | R | Low | L | 5 | 4.76 | 4 | 5.5 | 132 | -153 | UNDER | 35 | 34.22% | 65.78% | 7.39% | 241 | 504 | 20.54%, +387 | 10.63%, +841 | 5.56% | 2.54% | -8.79% | -5.93% | Damp | 20.54% | 0.89930 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Kyle Harrison | ATH | L | Mid | M | 8 | 8.12 | 8 | 7.5 | 112 | -143 | OVER | 73 | 56.05% | 43.95% | 11.55% | 215 | 413 | 42.37%, +136 | 30.05%, +233 | 19.99% | 12.50% | 10.62% | 10.56% | Boost | 19.99% | 0.03496 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Tail-Friendly Environment |
| Confirmed | Jeffrey Springs | MIL | L | Low | S-M | 4 | 3.73 | 3 | 4.5 | 126 | -145 | UNDER | 30 | 31.99% | 68.01% | 10.79% | 270 | 550 | 17.65%, +466 | 8.25%, +1113 | 3.83% | 1.53% | -9.38% | -7.14% | Neutral | 17.65% | 2.41216 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
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